Bitcoin (BTC) may not be living up to the optimistic expectations typically associated with “Uptober,” but it could be too early to predict the cryptocurrency’s path for the remainder of the month. Investors are closely watching broader economic developments that could impact the market, according to Ryan Lee, chief crypto analyst at Bitget.

In an October 2 report viewed by Cointelegraph, Lee cautioned that “most investors are largely reactionary to macro events,” making it difficult to judge Bitcoin’s trend for the rest of the month. Since September 27, Bitcoin has dropped by 5.76%, according to TradingView, reflecting a cautious market sentiment as traders and investors await more concrete developments.

Despite this rocky start, traders argue that the rest of October remains uncertain. “Just because Uptober started this way doesn’t mean it will end the same,” said CryptoQuant contributor Axel Adler, referring to the typical bullish sentiment surrounding Bitcoin in October.

One key factor behind the hesitation in the market is a 16% drop in Bitcoin’s spot trading volume since the beginning of October. Lee explained this decline as a sign of investor caution, with many opting to remain on the sidelines amidst ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty. He pointed out that investors are leaning toward a “risk-off” approach, avoiding capital commitments while broader economic concerns—such as interest rate cuts and global political events—unfold.

Bitcoin’s market capitalization has also seen a slight decline of 2.5% since October 1, according to CoinMarketCap, further demonstrating the prevailing uncertainty.

Several macroeconomic events are likely contributing to the hesitancy in the market. These include the potential for further Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, the upcoming U.S. presidential election, and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Such factors may be keeping many investors from making bold moves in the crypto space.

Despite the overall cautious tone, Lee remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s short-term potential. He suggested that if conditions improve, Bitcoin could see an 18% price surge. “BTC has sustained over the $60,000 support level and may fluctuate in the $72,000 range,” he noted, adding that Bitcoin’s historically strong fourth-quarter performance may still materialize as market conditions stabilize.

Additionally, institutional investors continue to maintain confidence in Bitcoin. According to Farside data, spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. have accumulated over 18,500 BTC—equivalent to more than $1.1 billion—over the past 10 months, indicating steady demand for the digital asset even amid market uncertainty.