Cardano (ADA), one of the worst-performing cryptocurrencies of 2024, is making a surprising comeback after shedding over 40% of its value by October. The token, which struggled through much of the year, has experienced a sharp turnaround in November, recovering nearly half a year’s losses within a single week. Now, investors and analysts are watching closely as ADA targets potential 100% gains by March 2025.

Cardano Rebounds on Trump-Hoskinson Rumors

On November 10, Cardano’s price surged over 20%, hitting $0.597, a high not seen since April. This price jump aligns with a broader crypto market rally following Donald Trump’s reelection on November 6, a pro-crypto development that has invigorated optimism across the market. However, ADA’s sharp intraday gains were largely driven by rumors circulating about Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson potentially joining the upcoming Trump administration in a cryptocurrency policy role.

These rumors, which spread quickly on social media and news platforms, suggested Hoskinson might collaborate with the Trump administration to shape crypto policy. However, Hoskinson clarified during a recent YouTube livestream that, while Cardano’s team is setting up an office for engaging with government officials, he has not received any formal invitation to join a crypto policy department.

Trump has also not officially announced a dedicated cryptocurrency policy group, further casting doubt on the speculation. Nevertheless, the anticipation of a Hoskinson-Trump collaboration fueled ADA’s price rally, highlighting the influence of speculation on crypto valuations.

Technical Analysis: ADA’s Path to Potential Gains and Risks

ADA’s recent rally has pushed its daily relative strength index (RSI) to the most overbought levels since December 2023, indicating that the market may be overheating. This scenario suggests the possibility of profit-taking in the short term, which could lead to a minor price pullback in the coming days.

As of November 10, ADA was testing a key resistance level near $0.599, the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement line. If ADA fails to break through this resistance, it could pull back to the next support zone in the $0.548-$0.489 range, which also aligns with the 0.5-0.382 Fibonacci retracement levels. This range represents a retest of ADA’s recently broken multi-year descending trendline, a key technical level for the token.

If ADA finds strong support in this range, it could confirm the breakout, setting up a solid base for further gains. In this scenario, ADA could attempt to break its 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level at around $0.65 in December. A successful breach of this level could pave the way for ADA to reach the $1.139 target in Q1 2025, representing a 105% rally from its current price.

A Promising but Cautious Outlook

While ADA’s rebound has been promising, the possibility of a false breakout remains. If ADA fails to hold above its recently broken descending trendline, it could retrace further, potentially falling back toward the ascending trendline support near $0.350. Such a scenario would signal a significant setback, dampening bullish momentum.

The November rally underscores how market sentiment and speculative news can drive short-term price fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market. Although ADA’s rally is encouraging, the market’s reaction to unconfirmed information serves as a reminder of the volatility that characterizes the crypto space.

What’s Next for Cardano?

If ADA manages to maintain support and continue its upward momentum, its potential to hit $1.139 by early 2025 would position Cardano among the top performers in the coming year. However, investors should exercise caution, particularly with ADA’s RSI in overbought territory, suggesting a potential cooldown period ahead.

The Trump administration’s anticipated pro-crypto policies could provide a favorable environment for Cardano and other cryptocurrencies. The growing focus on regulation and policy could bring stability and clarity, potentially benefiting projects like Cardano that prioritize compliance and governance.

In summary, Cardano’s November rally and potential for 100% gains in 2025 have captured investor attention, but market participants should remain cautious given the influence of speculation and technical resistance levels. The coming months will be pivotal for ADA’s price action, as the cryptocurrency tests support levels and seeks to sustain its newfound momentum.