Kalshi vs States: The Court Battle That Could Redefine Prediction Markets in the US
The ruling didn’t settle the fight. It just moved it to a bigger stage. This week, Kalshi picked up a key win at the United States Court of Appeals for…
Polymarket’s V2 Overhaul: Infrastructure Control, Collateral Design, and the Push Toward Regulation
Polymarket isn’t tweaking around the edges anymore. This upgrade feels like a line in the sand. What used to look like a fast, crypto-native prediction app is starting to look……
Prediction Markets in Asia: Growth Opportunity or Regulatory Dead End?
Prediction markets are expanding aggressively into Asia’s largest economies, but the region is exposing a structural tension that has followed the industry since its inception: demand exists at scale, but…
Federal vs State Control of Prediction Markets: Why the CFTC Lawsuits Could Redefine the Industry
The decision by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the US Department of Justice to sue multiple states marks a turning point in the legal status of prediction markets. What…
AI vs Humans in Prediction Markets: Arbitrage, Speed, and the Collapse of Retail Edge
AI vs Humans in Prediction Markets: Speed Already Won Prediction markets were supposed to reward insight. That was the pitch. You bring information. You form a view. The market aggregates…
Polymarket Targets Insider Trading With New Market Design and Surveillance Rules
Polymarket Tightens Rules as Prediction Markets Face a Credibility Test Prediction markets had a good run being “experimental.” That phase is ending. This week, Polymarket updated its market integrity rules—quietly,…
Six Polymarket Wallets Earn $1.2M on Iran Strike Prediction
Prediction markets love calling themselves truth engines. Prices as probability. Collective intelligence distilled into a number. Then six wallets turned roughly $1 million into $1.2 million betting the United States…
Polymarket Prices a 6% Chance of ‘Bill Gates Charged by June 30’
A new Polymarket contract asking whether Bill Gates will be formally charged or indicted in the US by June 30, 2026 is trading around 6% “Yes.” Six percent. That sounds…
Kalshi Suspends MrBeast Editor in Insider Trading Case, Fines Total $22,000
Prediction markets like to say they’re not casinos. They’re exchanges. Information markets. Probabilities with price discovery. This week, Kalshi tried to prove it — not with a marketing campaign, but…
Polymarket Ordered to Halt Dutch Operations: What the Netherlands Crackdown Signals for Global Prediction Markets
Polymarket just ran into a wall in the Netherlands. Not a warning shot. Not a polite letter. A hard stop. The Dutch Gambling Authority ordered Polymarket’s Dutch-facing entity, Adventure One,…