Dave Finances covers prediction markets, event contracts, regulatory developments, platform updates, legal disputes, market activity, liquidity, pricing, and emerging use cases across political, economic, financial, and sports-related markets. Our coverage focuses on major platforms, regulatory changes, market structure, and developments affecting traders and industry participants.
A prediction-market surveillance service has flagged 20 Polymarket wallets for statistically unusual trading patterns, including newly created accounts that recorded hundreds of resolved winning positions without a single reported loss.…
Prediction-market traders have sharply reduced the probability that Saudi Arabia’s damaged East-West oil pipeline will officially return to operation by Sept. 22, even as Saudi Aramco finds alternative ways to…
Polymarket and Myriad Traders Now Overwhelmingly Favor Anthropic Prediction markets are becoming remarkably one-sided over which of the two largest private artificial intelligence companies will reach public markets first, with…
Market Names Binance, Coinbase, Bybit, OKX and Kraken A Polymarket contract is pricing a roughly 4% chance that one of five major cryptocurrency exchanges will become insolvent or enter bankruptcy…
Prediction markets are putting remarkably similar odds on one of Bitcoin’s most consequential tail risks: Satoshi Nakamoto moving Bitcoin before the end of 2026. OPINION’s market currently prices the event…
Six Polymarket wallets previously flagged for placing millions of dollars against the CLARITY Act have surged up the platform’s profit rankings after the legislation failed to advance in the Senate,…
Research Finds Thin Political Markets Can Shift on Less Than $1,000 Political prediction-market prices can move by double-digit percentage points on surprisingly small trades, according to new research that raises…
Fed Contracts Show Repeated Cross-Platform Pricing Gaps Kalshi and Polymarket have repeatedly priced the same Federal Reserve and political outcomes far enough apart to create apparent cross-platform arbitrage opportunities, highlighting…
New Wallets Show Hundreds of Resolved Wins Without a Recorded Loss A Polymarket monitoring service has flagged 20 wallets for unusually strong trading records, including newly created accounts showing hundreds…
One Wallet Cuts Exposure as $15 Million Market Braces for Sept. 15 Vote A cluster of six Polymarket wallets that collectively deployed about $3.63 million betting against the Clarity Act…