The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has introduced two regulatory measures designed to distinguish federally regulated prediction-market contracts from traditional gambling, escalating a legal battle over whether states can…
The platforms look like simple probability apps. The economics increasingly look like an electronic market where casual flow meets specialists, market makers and automated traders. Research thesis Prediction markets are…
Research Finds Thin Political Markets Can Shift on Less Than $1,000 Political prediction-market prices can move by double-digit percentage points on surprisingly small trades, according to new research that raises…
Something shifted this quarter. Not quietly. Not gradually. It snapped into place. When Intercontinental Exchange prints a $3 billion quarter and starts talking openly about prediction markets, you’re not looking…
The legal conflict surrounding Kalshi is no longer a localized dispute between a platform and individual states. It is evolving into a constitutional-level question about federal authority, financial regulation, and…
AI vs Humans in Prediction Markets: Speed Already Won Prediction markets were supposed to reward insight. That was the pitch. You bring information. You form a view. The market aggregates…
Prediction markets are steadily expanding beyond politics, sports, and crypto-native price forecasts into domains traditionally dominated by economists, policymakers, and long-term investors. The partnership between Parcl and Polymarket marks one…
Prediction markets have crossed a threshold that few expected this quickly. In 2025, they stopped being experimental trading venues and became a mainstream financial product processing tens of billions of…
How Prediction Markets Became Finance’s New Power Center What began as an obscure corner of the internet—used mostly by technologists and political obsessives to forecast election outcomes—ended 2025 as one…
Why Do Prediction Markets Trigger Such a Strong Moral Reaction? Few areas of crypto provoke as visceral a reaction as prediction markets. To critics, they represent a dangerous fusion of…