Bitcoin Stalls Near $64,000 as Bottom Signals Build
Bitcoin remained trapped near $64,000 even as fresh exchange-traded fund inflows, record U.S. equity prices and easing geopolitical tensions created a broadly supportive environment for risk assets.
U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs attracted $211.5 million in net inflows on Tuesday, led by approximately $170.3 million entering BlackRock’s IBIT. Spot ether ETFs added about $53 million during the same session.
The inflows failed to produce a meaningful bitcoin rally. The cryptocurrency traded around $64,600 on Wednesday, while ether hovered near $1,900.
The lack of a stronger response stood out because other markets moved decisively. The S&P 500 closed Tuesday near a record 7,737, while the Nasdaq gained 2.6% as strong artificial intelligence-related earnings revived demand for technology shares.
Brent crude also fell below $80 a barrel as investors responded to signs of progress toward easing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. Lower oil prices reduced concerns that another energy shock could keep inflation elevated and force the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy further.
Bitcoin participated in little of that optimism.
Wintermute argued that the ETF demand may not represent straightforward directional buying. Some institutional investors can purchase spot ETF shares while taking offsetting short positions through futures or other derivatives, allowing them to capture pricing differences without making a lasting bet on bitcoin’s price.
That possibility helps explain why hundreds of millions of dollars can enter spot products without creating equivalent upward pressure. Bitcoin may be changing ownership, but the buyer on the other side may already be hedged.
The market maker said the recovery case would become more convincing if bitcoin moved clearly above $65,000. Until then, the ETF inflows appear to be helping defend the current range rather than beginning a new trend.
Glassnode described the divergence as the central feature of the week. Global equity markets reached records while bitcoin fell more than four percentage points behind the S&P 500.
The cryptocurrency also remained calm through an unusual burst of onchain activity following the theft of approximately 594 BTC from around 500 Coldcard hardware wallets on July 31.
The attacker reportedly exploited a flaw in how affected devices generated private keys, stealing about $38 million in bitcoin within 25 minutes.
The incident caused holders to move large amounts of older bitcoin into new wallets as a precaution. Around 119,000 BTC that had been inactive for at least one year moved over the following three days, roughly 200 times the amount stolen.
Despite the sudden movement of dormant coins, there was no measurable increase in spot selling. Only about a tenth of the revived supply remained on exchanges, while the amount of bitcoin held in wallets younger than one month rose by approximately 40%.
The pattern suggests that most holders were replacing potentially compromised wallets rather than preparing to sell.
The absence of selling pressure adds to evidence that the market is gradually exhausting available supply near current prices.
Approximately 155,000 BTC has accumulated between $62,000 and $65,000, making the zone bitcoin’s largest onchain cost-basis cluster. The concentration represents about 0.7% of circulating supply and indicates that buyers have continued absorbing coins despite repeated moves below $63,000.
Bitfinex analysts said 54.6% of bitcoin’s supply was in profit as of Aug. 2, leaving the average holder close to breakeven.
Previous periods in which profitable and unprofitable supply became evenly divided have often appeared during cycle bottoms. However, such conditions can persist for an extended period before a durable recovery begins.
Bitcoin’s Seller Exhaustion Constant has also fallen to its lowest level of the current cycle. The indicator combines the percentage of supply in profit with price volatility to identify periods when losses are widespread but selling activity has weakened.
The metric has entered the region where previous bottoms began developing, although it remains roughly one-third above the deepest levels reached during earlier bear markets.
The institutional demand picture also remains uncertain. Spot bitcoin ETFs suffered their worst month since launch in June, losing about $4.5 billion as investors withdrew exposure during the market decline.
The recent inflows are encouraging, but two positive sessions are not enough to show that the structural buying seen during the previous two years has returned.
Options markets reflect the same lack of conviction. Near-term traders are pricing an unusually small move, while longer-dated contracts continue to reflect concern that volatility will eventually return.
One-day options implied a move of only about 1% around Wednesday’s expiry, placing bitcoin inside an expected range of roughly $63,450 to $64,750.
Upside implied volatility has fallen close to historical lows as demand for call options has faded. At the same time, short-term sentiment continues to change sharply after relatively small price movements.
The result is a market that expects almost nothing from spot prices but remains highly sensitive to every new headline.
Bitcoin’s Boredom Is Hiding a Fragile Balance
Bitcoin’s refusal to rally alongside stocks may look like weakness, but it can also be read as evidence that the market has entered the final, frustrating stage of a bottoming process.
Major bottoms do not always arrive through dramatic crashes. Sometimes sellers simply run out of urgency.
That appears to be what is happening around the $62,000-to-$65,000 range. Buyers are not strong enough to force a breakout, but sellers are also failing to push the price decisively lower.
The Coldcard episode offered an unusually useful test. More than 100,000 dormant bitcoin suddenly moved, yet the market absorbed the activity without producing panic or measurable selling pressure.
In a fragile market, that movement could have triggered fears that long-term holders were rushing toward exchanges. Instead, most of the coins moved into new storage.
That does not prove the bottom is complete. It shows that holders are not yet behaving as though they expect an immediate collapse.
The ETF response is more complicated.
An inflow of more than $200 million would normally be treated as evidence of institutional demand. When the price barely moves, however, it suggests that the buying is being met by equally determined selling or offset by derivatives positions elsewhere.
That is why the $65,000 level matters. A clean break above it would show that buyers are no longer merely absorbing supply but are becoming willing to pay higher prices.
Until that happens, the market remains balanced rather than bullish.
The options market makes that balance dangerous. Traders have stopped paying for an immediate move because recent price action has been so quiet. Low volatility then encourages leverage, option selling and strategies that assume the range will continue.
The longer bitcoin remains still, the more crowded those positions can become.
When the range eventually breaks, traders may be forced to adjust at the same time, making the move larger than the original catalyst would normally justify.
History offers some encouragement to bulls. Comparable periods of deeply compressed one-month realized volatility have usually resolved through an upward move.
The problem is that previous breakouts often had a background source of demand, such as ETF accumulation, expanding stablecoin liquidity or aggressive corporate buying.
This compression is forming after a record month of ETF withdrawals and during a period of limited spot participation. The market has the conditions for a sharp move but lacks a dependable engine to determine its direction.
That leaves macroeconomic data in control.
Lower oil prices, easing geopolitical risk and reduced expectations of another Federal Reserve rate increase are helping risk assets. Bitcoin could benefit if Friday’s U.S. employment report confirms that the economy is cooling without slipping into a serious downturn.
A weaker jobs figure could lower real yields and make non-yielding assets more attractive. A stronger report could revive concerns that interest rates will remain restrictive or rise again.
For now, bitcoin is neither breaking down nor joining the wider market rally. It is storing pressure inside one of its narrowest ranges of the cycle.
The stillness is unlikely to last. The unresolved question is whether returning demand pushes bitcoin through $65,000 or whether one final wave of selling is needed before the bottom is complete.